Copernicus introduced an idea that is both interesting and a little abhorrent to our world. The idea is that as a species, humans are not particularly special. Put another way, we would be mistaken to assume without some extraordinary reason, that we exist in a privileged place in the universe. This idea was against the thought of the time and Copernicus was wise enough to present his idea after he died to prevent any backlash from harming himself or his family. It was championed by others after his death. Most notable is Galileo Gallilee who ran afoul of the Catholic Church, was forced to recant his ideas, and placed under house arrest for a large portion of his lifetime. Yet this idea still persists and is taken for the norm. Let's examine the premise of this and see how it affects our view of our place in the universe.
This all started with the idea that the Earth was not the center of the universe. In fact it was determined later that the Earth wasn't even the center of our solar system. As others jumped on the bandwagon, it has been determined that we aren't a particularly special species, we don't occupy a special place in our galaxy, nor is our galaxy(the Milky Way) particularly special among all the galaxies. We evolved from various species before us on a planet teaming with millions of species. We live on one planet in a solar system with nine planets in a spiral arm of a galaxy that has hundreds of millions of solar systems. Our galaxy is just one of hundreds of billions of galaxies. In effect we are just another life form in the universe. This is known as the principle of mediocrity. This theory has proven to be very useful once we accepted it. It has allowed us to move forward with a great number of scientific theories. For example, evolution, the position of Earth in our solar system, and the existence of Cosmic Background Microwave Radiation. All of these theories were formulated and/or proven using the idea that we are not particularly special. So what does this mean for us? How can this be proven or disproven?
There is a unique hypothesis put forward by a man named J. Richard Gott who
analyzed a few questions using probability and mediocrity to give us an idea of how this
works. His primary hypothesis is based around what he calls his delta t argument. T is
a variable for time. Looking at various things, from planets to species to buildings, Gott
can determine the probability of their continued existence. He hypothesizes that a
suitable way to determine the longevity of something is to enter it into the equation of
1/39Tpast{Tfuture{39T1 past. In other words the expected longevity of something
continuing from when you first run across it is between 1/39th of the time it existed and
39 times the time it existed. This will determine the longevity of the object/species/thing
within 95 percentile of probability. He uses this example. He went to see the Berlin wall
in 1969. At that time it existed for eight years. Using his formula would look like
this.
1/39(8years){Tfuture{39(8 years) or .2 years{T future{312 years
In fact the Berlin wall fell in 1989. This is well within the range of .2 and 312 years. In
his paper he uses this idea for exploring the longevity of humans, the possibility for
finding other intelligent life forms, as well as our ability to go into space and colonize
other planets. However, he also argues the rarity and the specialty it would take to be
outside of that 95 percent. Let us say that the human race has a longevity of 200 million
years. You are born in 1989. You have no idea at that point how long the human race
will exist. How do you tell if you are within the 95 percentile of humanity or at the
beginning or ending 2.5 percent? At the time you don't. The only way to tell that is to
look at the race as a whole when it ends. However, the probability of you being in those
2.5 percent areas is quite small. This reinforces the principle of mediocrity. In effect,
you are a random observer of time in the middle of many other random observers.
When you are born is not preordained or particularly special. It appears that the prin-
ciple will logically hold together.
Wait, you say. How can I be just another person? I am different from everyone else. No one sees things as I do. No one thinks exactly like I do. How can I not be special? That depends on how you value things. As an individual you are special to yourself and those that you encounter. There is no way to replace you. However, in the grand cosmic scheme of things, you are just another intelligent observer of the universe. The way to make you special or to be alive during a special time in the universe would go something like this. Let us say that the human race ends up expanding out of the solar system and has a grand galactic empire. As a species we end up existing indefinitely. If you as an individual were the driving force behind a technological advancement or the motivation to get us off the planet then you would be special. This would make you relatively unique among humans as you were living up to your full potential. Referencing Gott's equation, with an indefinite (or at least very long) life span for the human race, you have a greater possibility of being alive during the initial 2.5 percent of the human race's existence. This would put you in a unique if not special portion of our lifetime. This assumes that you were born in time to be around during the formative years of human extra solar expansion. This is how an individual would be special or in a special time.
Yet this doesn't make you totally unique according to the theory. You see there is a distinct possibility of the human race not being the only race of intelligent beings in the universe. It has been shown that there are other planets in this galaxy through imaging and more commonly, inference by gravitational effects. With the creation of the universe as we understand it, there is every reason to believe that we exist because the universe is perfectly set up to have our carbon based life exist. Using the principle of mediocrity we would be extremely egocentric to assume that we are the only intelligent life forms out there. What would make our one planet, in one solar system, in one spiral arm, of one galaxy, in one globular cluster, so special as to be the only place for life, let alone intelligent life? There could just as easily be another intelligent life form somewhere else contemplating the same issues. They would probably think roughly the same things we do in the aspects of, are we alone, and are we the only special life form. If they come to the same conclusions we have after the advent of the Copernican revolution, they could be realizing that the probability that they are special may also be remote. They would be correct as well. Yet this concept of not being special or unique, while difficult to live with, can be more useful than it already has.
Put in another way, it can be useful not to be egocentric. I base this on the longevity of the race and for that matter just with the personal interactions of individual. To believe that we occupy a privileged place in the universe cause us to be isolationist. We don't look outside ourselves or our planet because nothing out there matters. We have problems to contend with here on Earth and that is all that concerns us. If the universe had feelings, it wouldn't really care. The dinosaurs appear to have been destroyed by a massive climatological change caused by a comet or asteroid impact. At the time, the dinosaurs were the dominant life form. Poof, gone. The same thing could happen to us and there would be no one to mourn or even mark the passage of a somewhat interesting species (as far as we know at this time anyway). Taken from that perspective, it is useful not to think of ourselves as special as it could provide motivation for greater cooperation among humans. This cooperation could be used to develop new technologies for waste disposal, energy production, medicine, and manufacturing. Short term this would improve on the longevity of individuals. Long term this would allow more resources to be expended on expansion therefore improving our chances, as a species, to survive. With more humans on different planets, colonies, space stations, etc, there is a greater chance that some would survive if a castrophe happened at any one location. This would still put a limit on our species longevity of Sol's life span unless we leave the solar system. This would be the way to truly increase our longevity due to the availability of new resources and the expansion of our life form to many other areas. It would be more difficult to destroy all human life if it was in multiple solar systems than if it was on one planet in one solar system.
On this one planet a theory was born in the mind of a man named Copernicus. It would take extraordinary measures to make human beings special. This is against our desires but it isn't a difficult thing to understand. It has proven useful in our search for answers in nature and cosmology. It has led to some new scientific theories. It may even help us to improve the longevity of our race. All because one man went in search of the truth and didn't let emotion get in his way. Perhaps we will see that he was, in the timeline of humanity, special.
The Seven Wonders of the World have been catalogued more than once since the dawn of time. This was first accomplished during the time of the Greeks. Initially it was for travelers so they could see man made objects of particular note. Since then, there have been multiple lists. Currently there are lists for the Seven Wonders of the Ancient world, Seven Natural Wonders of the World, The Seven Wonders of the Middle Ages, and The Seven Wonders of Today. Most of these lists talk about acrhitectural accomplishments which made it difficult for me to decide what could possibly be an Eighth wonder and add it to this list. Since the beginning of this century, man has built all kinds of fantastic structures, machines, and forwarded technology in many directions. What would suitably fit in with these ancient wonders yet keep in time with recent accomplishments? I propose the Saturn V Rocket as a worthy candidate for an Eighth Wonder of the World.
To start with, the current Wonders are large. The Seven Wonders of today are listed as: The Great Pyramids(Egypt), Hagia Sophia(Turkey) Leaning Tower of Pisa(Italy), Washington Monument(U.S.), Eiffel Tower(France), Taj Mahal(India), and the Empire State Building(U.S.). All of these structures are immense. The Saturn V matches these statistics by being both tall and massive. It was 344 feet and 1/32inches (104.86 meters) tall. It was so tall it required the construction of a brand new vehicle assembly building to put it together. The Saturn V was also massive. Empty the vehicle weighed 525,500 pounds(239,724 kilograms). Loaded for the manned Apollo missions, the Saturn V weighed 6,100,000 pounds(2,766913 kilograms). Having actually seen some of the components, I was struck by the sheer size of this rocket. I could literally stand inside the exhaust bell of the 1st stage engines. This is more impressive considering the rocket was on it's side and I was standing in the diameter of the exhaust nozzle.
All of the current wonders of the world are powerful. All are impressive in their architecture and powerful in the emotions they evoke. The Saturn V is indeed impressive in its architecture as one of the tallest rockets ever built. It was also powerful. First is the sheer power of the equipment. In order to fly a rocket needs at least a 1 to 1 power to weight ratio. The loaded Saturn V weighed 6.1 million pounds. It must have thrust at least equal to its weight. In fact it has more. The engines on the first stage are Rocketdyne F-1 engines putting out 1,500,000 pounds of thrust each. Later they were uprated to 1,530,000 pounds. Final versions had a total of 7,650,000 pounds of thrust. This was easily enough to lift a fully loaded Saturn V and was only exceeded by the much later Russian booster Energia, both of which are no longer used. However this wasn't the only way that the Saturn V was powerful. It was also powerful in the emotions it evoked in people. There was the spectacle of this rocket launching into space. All the fury of a launch was an awe inspiring sight. Then was the dream of man going into space and knowing that this machine was on it's way to accomplishing that dream. It evoked powerful emotions in people regardless of your point of view. Wether it was the awe at the accomplishment or negative feelings regarding the resources expended for this goal. Finally, some people just think the rocket is beautiful in form. In all, the Saturn V matched the capabilities of the previous Seven Wonders.
The last similarity between the existing Seven Wonders and the Saturn V is its antiquity. All are obsolete and on display. Not that they aren't capable but the technol- ogy used to build them all has been bypassed by time. The traditional Seven Wonders are all architectural structures and so are constantly on display. The two remaining Saturn V rockets are also on display. One is at Kennedy Space Center in their museum. The other is at Huntsville, Alabama at the Marshall Space Flight Center and Space Camp Museum. Unlike the other wonders, there is more than one rocket but the number is limited. Millions of people will look at all these exhibits. All will have memorable visits to these various sites.
With so much in common I think the Saturn V is an excellent addition to the list of Wonders of the World. It is a massive structure. It is powerful in execution. It is even on display so that all can see it in person. With all the similarities, it is a natural addition as the Eight Wonder of the World. Even if only to me.
Man has always been curious. We have sought answers for many things during our lifetimes. Why is the Sky blue? Is the Earth Flat? What are those things in the night sky? We have been driven to improve our lives through the use of technology and creating that technology. We have explored as many places as we can get to. We have been to the top of the highest mountain and to the depths of the deepest ocean. We have even been to our own satellite, the moon. These endeavors have increased our knowledge of our universe and led to many new questions. The question I will discuss in this paper is, "Are we alone?"
There are numerous people who have asked this question before. All wanted to
find a way to answer this question. But how do we know if we even have a chance of
finding someone else out there? A man named Francis Drake came up with a formula
that could help us determine the probability of whether there are other intelligent life
forms out there or not. His equation looks like this.
N = R x Fp x Ne x Fl x Fi x Fc x L
The variables are defined like this.
N= the number of communicating civilizations.
R= the rate of formation of suitable stars.
Fp= the fraction of stars that have planets.
Ne= the number of earth like planets in those systems with planets.
Fl= the fraction of planets where life develops.
Fi= the fraction of Fl planets where intelligence develops.
Fc= the fraction of intelligent planets where technology develops.
L= lifetime of a communicating civilization.
This is a great formula and an impressive achievement but there are some problems
with it as far as finding other life forms. Most of these variables are unknown. There
isn't a way to determine them yet with the technology we currently have. For example,
the variable Fl. The only planet we know of that definitely has life on it is the Earth.
There is the possibility that there may once have been life on Mars or that One of the
Jovian moons might be a suitable breeding ground for elementary life forms but we
don't know. So the problem we have of determining how many life forms are out there
is as much one of ignorance as anything else.
So we as a planet decide we want to are other intelligent races out there and we want to contact them. How do we do that? We can build ships and scour the galaxy trying to find other life. Currently this is beyond our technology. We can barely get around our solar system. How are we supposed to travel to another solar system? Alpha Centauri is the nearest star to our solar system and using current technology, we would have to find some way of putting the crew into suspended animation as the travel time one way is far too long for them to see it otherwise. Not to mention the expense, which is prohibitive, and trying to find volunteers to go.
Well we could send unmanned probes instead. This would greatly reduce the expense as far as technologies for life support and environmental equipment. We still run into the propulsion technology issue. Current chemical propulsion units can't put out the sustaining thrust needed to reach another star in a reasonable length of time. There is also the problem of making them autonomous enough to operate without constant instruction. As the probe got farther and farther away, the communication time would increase to the point where any situation that called for a rapid correction would lead to the destruction of the probe because we would be receiving the distress call after the probe was already in trouble.
We need to find a different way. Currently we have chosen to scan the skies and listen for a signal from another intelligence. The most prominent organization is the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). They have been coordination efforts among the scientific community to try and find signals from another civilization. There are a number of projects funded by SETI as well as other countries. These projects include, Project Phoenix, Project Beta, Project META II, Serendip, and Southern SERENDIP. These projects are all professional projects. They are funded by either governments or by private donations. The theory behind all of these projects is contact by radio waves. They are using radio telescopes to see if they can intercept a signal by another intelligent civilization. There are also a numerous amateur projects around the world. These consist of organizations that may have purchased decommissioned radio telescopes for there own use to backyard hobbyists constructing there own radio telescopes and scanning the night skies. Among these amateur groups is one that is a little different called COSETI. This organization is searching the night sky for light pulses. Using lasers for interstellar transmission would be very effective and a constant pulseing light source in the sky would be a rather obvious signal form another intelligence. This has the added advantage of not losing wavelength due to the interference of our own atmosphere.
This is great! We don't have to spend billions trying to build these probes or ships. We just sit here, fighting for funding, waiting for another civilization to contact us. I think the probability of this happening are relatively small. As mentioned previously, we have the problems of interstellar distances. It takes light 4.5 years to travel from our nearest stellar neighbor, Alpha Centauri, to reach us. While radio waves are similar in velocity of light waves, this is the distance from our nearest neighbor. We are talking a huge number of years for a signal to reach us from another civilization. If there is someone to talk to and they decide to make themselves known, do they know where to look either? Perhaps you could just send an omnidirectional radio signal but how do you know who will get it? Then there is the problem of the signal losing energy as it travels the interstellar distance. Would the signal be strong enough when it reached us to be recognizable above the background noise of the universe? If it is, now we have to determine where I came from and decode the contents. What is their language? How do we interpret it? We have enough problems trying to decipher ancient human lan- guages. How are we going to decipher another species language without some time for interaction. That time will be the difficult part.
Lets say we do receive a signal from another intelligence. We are even able to
understand the message. It says we are here, or you are not alone. So we decide to
send a message back. We aren't sure how long the message took to get to us. It is
possible that the beings who sent us that message are long dead and gone because of
the travel time. However, we shall assume for the moment that it isn't the case. This
civilization is alive and well and it only took the signal 92.34 years to reach us. Roughly
every 100 years we have a piece of a conversation. Perhaps it goes like
this:
Them: We are here.
Us: Hi! We are here. We call ourselves Humans
Them: Hello yourself. We are the Zalakions and, tag you're it.
Something as simple as this would take almost three hundred years. That is enough lag
time to make conversation almost useless. You could eventually establish a routine
about when to communicate and maybe even the content. It just shows the probability
of communication is unlikely. On top of all of this, we don't have an idea of what another
civilization would be like or what they might want. Maybe there haven't been any
signals sent because another intelligences don't want to communicate with anyone else.
However we don't need to be defeatist about this. We could send a signal ourselves. This would allow us to take the initiative. We could send a signal with the basis for communication. We could show them where we are and give them an idea of when we sent it. However we still run into the problems associated with reception. Time, distance, and energy loss over the distance may degrade our signal as much as one sent by another civilization.
Will we be contacted by another intelligent civilization? That all depends on what you believe. First, you have to believe there is another intelligence out there. By refer- encing the Drake Equation, it is probable that there are other civilizations out there that have the intelligence and technology to contact another civilization. However they have to want to communicate and send a signal so others know they exist. Then you have the difficulty of communicating with other civilizations. Using manned spacecraft or even unmanned probes poses a problem as our current technology has not progressed to the point where it would be inexpensive or the time delay would be cut down enough to make a journey feasible. That leaves other means like radio or laser beams to carry a message. These beams have to powerful enough to travel the cosmos without degrading past a usable message. There again is the time factor as the universe is vast and even light takes 4.5 years to get to our nearest neighbor. Finally there is the prob- lem of understanding the message as a message and decoding it into something we can understand. We will keep searching to find the answer to the question "are we alone". Perhaps one day we will here the same question from another civilization.