The last 18 months have seen gloomy
business headlines. With the New Year ahead,
we "Think" on the reasons ... and a possible solution.

12/23/02 - Our nation was founded by optimists. These were people doing something about their future, with leaders and those following them taking great personal risks.
They were also people with only one way to look - ahead. That was because most had nothing to fall back on.

In 1607, when the band of English settlers arrived at Jamestown, Virginia, they met adversity and attacks. Nonetheless, they couldn't go home, or hunker down. They built their fort, their homes, their fields, their church and they made friends with most of the natives. It was no party. (read about it here)

In 1620, the Pilgrims left a world of religious oppression, and sailed to freedom.
They founded a world of optimism - where dreams and hard work turned personal visions to realities. Many died from attacks and disease the first winter. The rest pressed ahead.

When the Pilgrims arrived, they created a forward-looking document, since known as "The Mayflower Compact." It anticipated the future, and it cemented those who would face it together. 

These people were broke! They had been given "venture capital" (find out who financed our nation's founding) to make their crossings, but once here - they had to make good on their own, and work for seven years before their part in the bargain was settled. To do this, they looked forward - not back at their homeland or to what had happened yesterday. This was their only course, for there was nothing to fall back on.

Our history is filled with stories of those who risked their survival on a vision they found by looking ahead. For those who succeeded - having no option but to succeed helped them conquer adversity and it instilled the brute determination to make their visions a reality.

On September 10th of last year, our nation was prospering. Work was bountiful. Jobs were asking for skilled people to fill them. The prospects were rosy - perhaps too rosy. Money was flowing - almost "overflowing" - as individual and corporate coffers filled to the brim. Venture capital was everywhere - a product of "easy" money being leveraged to seek even "easier" returns." 

But something was happening. Many in high corporate places were feathering their nests, and paying less attention to the collective vision than to a vision of their own. It was as though too many captains of our modern day "Mayflowers" were more concerned with decorating their own cabins - than standing duty on deck plotting a course to the future. Compounding the mess - totally inexperienced captains were given great ships - and they set their courses for well-charted reefs. In politics - things seemed almost the same. Elections were tarnished by holes in punch-cards, and results were determined by lawyers and judges. There were rumbles of pessimism.

And then those horrible moments - on September 11th - when everyone in America, in disbelief, watched our nation take terrible losses. And, in spite of the urgings to go on with life - every one of us - to some degree - changed our ways of thinking.

Perhaps naturally, many moved from exploration of the future to a defense of the present, and the past. This outlook - by companies, by leaders, by individuals - shook our foundations. Like an earthquake rolling across the land, focusing on the past and defending the present - this thinking - placed all our futures on hold. Our journey was interrupted!

First, the businesses that could never make it in any but a hyper-ventilated environment began to fail. Venture capital investors would throw in no more of their money. Corporate lenders, for even the most established enterprises, started asking tough questions, and demanding performance. This revealed unseen ills. 

Many captains of industry responded by lightening their treasure ships - and the first weight they tossed overboard was the crew. Others simply lied about corporate performance, to cover their schemes - along with the fact that their vessels were actually aground. Theirs was not a self mandate to reach new lands - but the self-serving determination to reach a luxurious retirement. Investors, seeing this - and generalizing it broadly - lost faith and sold off their shares while taking huge losses in the plunge of corporate values.

2002 in business will be remembered as the year to forget! For a month-by-month recap of the disasters - from Enron in January to Martha Stewart in June, and then on to United Airlines in December, click here. Better yet, don't!

Ironically perhaps, our economy's depth allows many business leaders the option to pull back and hunker down - to sit out the storm. Unlike the Pilgrims - without such options - some corporate ships may survive their wait. Even though trimming sail and lightening cargos might get them through, their final position will be far behind those who keep pressing ahead.

Some enterprises have sailed on. Those now making the most headway are nimble businesses without the inclination to sit, and wait out the storm. We see this happening today - in airlines, in energy, in communications, in retailing. 

Those who - like the Pilgrims - are looking ahead and pressing on are the ones who "miraculously" seem to prosper. Most simply lack the resources to sit on their hands.

I recently counseled a businessman - starting out on his own after a long corporate career - to resist the temptation to make himself comfortable by cutting way back on his spending. I even suggested he make himself "prudently uncomfortable" to create the self-drive and commitment to force his business success. Without this, he would always have the "option" to fail. 

Few ships find treasures when anchored. How long business leaders prolong their "sitting" in seemingly safe harbors - will determine their company's future - and our nation's economy. Until the optimism and the drive that founded our nation returns, the contagious pessimism of the present and hesitancy to sail through a storm will surely block the view ahead.

As the new year now rolls onto calendars and into our everyday lives - we should summon the will to enthusiastically start planning the rest of our interrupted journey - by taking a new look ahead.

Happy New Year!  



William H. Thompson
Principal

PS - Visit the Thompson Group web site. Click here!

As we "unwrap" the year 2003 ... we hope you enjoyed the very happiest Holiday Season and we extend our wishes for a hope-fulfilling New Year.

We received many thanks for our Holiday Message - focusing on the wonders of stained glass art as it appears in places of worship throughout the world. If you would like to view this - click here.